Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Special Avalanche Warning

As much as 60cm of new snow accompanied by strong winds has fallen on to an island snow pack that is already unstable with deep, persistent weak layers that are quite uncommon for Vancouver Island. A natural avalanche cycle is expected on Sunday night and the avalanche danger is rated as HIGH for Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday a warming trend with as much as 30mm of rain are being forecast for the island mountains. Another natural avalanche cycle will result. The avalanche danger rating for Tuesday and Wednesday is also forecast as HIGH.

Mountain recreationists are being advised not to travel in any avalanche terrain. If they do not have the training to recognize avalanche terrain then they are advised not to travel in the back country at all for the next three days.

Date Issued: Sunday, January 4,2009

Valid Until: Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Weather: Sunday afternoon and evening have seen from 30 to 60 cm of new snow in the island mountains depending on location. This snow has been accompanied by very strong winds (up to 90km/hr) on the north island and moderate to strong winds elsewhere. With much new snow as well as past snow available for transport these winds will have moved very significant amounts of snow to the lees.

Snowpack: 30 to 60 cm of storm snow has fallen onto a highly variable and highly unusual snow pack for vancouver island. A number of persistent, weak facet layers exist at various depths in the snow pack. All have been shown to be reactive to added loads and all are now significantly loaded by a lot of new snow. This 30 to 60 cm of new snow has been transported in dramatic quantities into the lees of the predominantly SE winds.

Travel advisory: The snow pack is very unstable and is likely to stay that way for some time. Travel in avalanche terrain is is not advised. With persistent instabilities in the snow pack at tree line and above now being loaded with a significant amount of new snow transported by strong winds, a natural avalanche cycle is very likely. Below tree line snow amounts now exceed threshold. Winds below tree line have been significant as well meaning that triggering avalanches below tree line is also probable on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, continued precipitation in the form of rain due to rising freezing levels will mean that the hazard will remain high at and above tree line and will rise to high below tree line as well as the snow turns to rain.

Avalanche activity: A number of skier triggered and natural avalanches have been observed on Sunday even previous to the arrival of the the new snow. A natural avalanche cycle is very likely on Sunday night and again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Outlook: Snow is forecast to continue on Sunday night and to ease to flurries on Monday bringing another 5-10cm. On Tuesday a frontal system will bring freezing levels well over the tops of the island mountains and as much as 30mm of rain Tuesday and through to Wednesday.

Confidence: Good. There seems to be reasonable agreement amongst models about the warming trend and heavy precipitation amounts for Tuesday and Wednesday.

PARTY FOR THE BULLETIN! Don’t miss the Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party 24 January, 2009 at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Two great bands, prizes, silent auction items and beer from our friends at Phillp’s Brewing. If you use the bulletin and would like to support it, come on out and party! Call 250 336 2870 or email info@islandalpineguides.com for more info.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Alpine Guides Avalanche Bulletin.

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.