Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

PARTY FOR THE BULLETIN! Don’t miss the Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party 24 January, 2009 at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Two great bands, prizes, silent auction items and beer from our friends at Phillp’s Brewing. If you use the bulletin and would like to support it, come on out and party! Call 250 336 2870 or email info@islandalpineguides.com for more info.

Date Issued: Monday, January 12, 2009

Valid Until: Thursday, January 15, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Weather: The large amounts of precipitation and dramatic rise in freezing levels predicted in our last forecast did not come in quite as large as predicted. The west coast did get a good soaking with 50-80mm of water equivalent falling depending on location whereas the east coast received as little as 10mm of water resulting in less than 10 cm of new snow since at least half of it fell as rain. The good news for snow lovers is that though the freezing levels did reach to tops of the island peaks for a while during the week-end, this time was relatively short and we received more snow and less rain than forecast.

Snowpack: Variability remains the order of the day in the island snow pack. With 200mm of precipitation having fallen on the west coast in the last week it is fair to guess that the deep instabilities in the snow pack have been nearly eradicated on the wet, up slope side of the island mountains. On the east coast dramatically less precipitation and less widespread avalanche cycles mean that the facets deep in the snow pack will be persisting in places. As reported before the areas to be concerned about are likely higher in the alpine (though low alpine and tree line may still be affected in places as well), in shallow areas adjacent to deeper areas on smooth ground cover. As reported here and previously the east coast of the island alps is certainly more suspect than the west. So where does the east coast start and end and where are the areas of concern exactly? This is impossible to say without extensive digging in the snow all over the island. Anyone thinking of travelling in the mountains must take it upon themselves to probe and dig around in safe places to see if the facets exist at the bottom of the snow pack.

Below tree line things have been well soaked and frozen and melted again making for a solid pack. The only concern at lower elevations will be wet snow losing it’s strength with a combination of warm air temperatures and solar radiation as the clouds disappear this week.

Travel advisory: As advised previously, be cautious especially the further east you go in the island mountains in the alpine and at tree line in areas of smooth ground cover and were weaker, shallower snow could trigger a fracture which will travel effectively into adjacent deeper, denser slabs. Where you can start an avalanche is very terrain specific but you can start an avalanche. Unless you have very detailed and specific knowledge of the ground cover in terrain you must treat all alpine and sub alpine avalanche terrain as suspect. Stick to lower angled, supported terrain and smaller terrain features and probe and dig in the snow in safe places to try to ascertain where loose facet layers exist deep in the snow pack. If you do not have snow stability evaluation skills make conservative terrain decisions by staying in simple low angled terrain. Caution is also advised with the warming and solar radiation causing wet snow avalanches and cornice drops. Both of these are hazards in their own right of course but could also be triggers of larger avalanches going down to our persistent deep instabilities.

Outlook: There is little to no precipitation in the forecast. Freezing levels are forecast to rise to over 3000 meters for the forecast period with cloudy weather Tuesday and clearing for Wednesday and Thursday.

Confidence: Good. Models are generally in agreement on freezing levels.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.