Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

PARTY FOR THE BULLETIN! Don’t miss the Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party 24 January, 2009 at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Two great bands, prizes, silent auction items and beer from our friends at Phillp’s Brewing. If you use the bulletin and would like to support it, come on out and party! Call 250 336 2870 or email info@islandalpineguides.com for more info.

Date Issued: Thursday, January 15, 2009

Valid Until: Sunday, January 18, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Weather: Warm temperatures, inversion and no precipitation have been the story for the past days and will be the story for the forecast period at least.

Snowpack: The warm temperatures in a general. long term sense will be good for the island snow pack. However in the short term they will make the situation worse in some places. The persistent deep instability in the snow pack which we have been reporting for some time still exists. We know that this instability is more likely to be found in the easter portion of the island alps and is most likely to be an issue in areas of smooth ground cover adjacent to deeper, denser slabs. Identifying exactly where the problem exists and where it does not is difficult. Unless you have intimate local terrain knowledge and have done a lot of digging and probing to establish the existence or non-existence of this layer, you should treat all alpine and tree line avalanche terrain as suspect.

Travel advisory: As advised previously, be cautious especially the further east you go in the island mountains in the alpine and at tree line in areas of smooth ground cover and were weaker, shallower snow could trigger a fracture which will travel effectively into adjacent deeper, denser slabs. Where you can start an avalanche is very terrain specific but you can still start an avalanche. Unless you have very detailed and specific local terrain knowledge and have done a lot of digging and probing to establish the existence or non-existence of the persistent deep weakness in the snow pack, you should treat all alpine and tree line avalanche terrain as suspect. Stick to lower angled, supported terrain and smaller terrain features and probe and dig in the snow in safe places to try to ascertain where loose facet layers exist deep in the snow pack. If you do not have snow stability evaluation skills make conservative terrain decisions by staying in simple low angled terrain. Significant warming and solar radiation are forecast for the next three days. Alpine and treeline temperatures of up to 12 degrees above freezing will cause wet snow avalanches and cornice drops which are of course hazards in their own right but which could also trigger deeper, larger slides.

With temperature inversion at play over the next few days, below tree line temperatures will likely be considerably cooler than at tree line and above. Keep a close eye on these temperatures and solar radiation and look for tell tale signs of snow weakening due to heat (pin wheeling, smaller wet point releases, difficult travel in deep wet snow).

Avalanche Activity: The cycle of natural avalanches has tapered off for now. We do expect to see some natural wet snow avalanches in the forecast period due to warm temperatures and solar radiation. These wet slides may also trigger deeper, larger slides on the deep instability.

Outlook: A solid ridge of high pressure will give sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures for the forecast period. Freezing levels bettween 3500 and 4000m will be accompanied by temperature inversions giving up to 12 degrees in the alpine and an average high of 8 degrees at sea level. Night time temperatures will reach freezing only at and near sea level and will not above making this like a late spring situation in which the snow does not re-freeze at night.

Confidence: Good. Models are generally in agreement.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.