Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Valid Until: Thursday, January 29, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Fair due to the amount snow forecasted.  Models are not in total agreement regarding precip amounts.  If we get less snow than expected (15cms) then alpine hazard would remain at Moderate.

Primary Concerns:

New wind deposited snow on Surface Hoar overlying melt-freeze crusts at all elevations.

Deep facet layers still prevalent  where a trigger in the right spot could still initiate large destructive avalanches.

Weather:

Our next system is on its way Monday night with up to 15cms of new snow at Treeline elevations with the potential of up to 20 in the alpine.  Strong SE winds up to 50km/hr are forecasted to accompany this snowfall with freezing levels staying low in 800m range.  A quick rise in freezing levels is expected on Thursday but this should be short lived with little precip coming with it.

Snowpack:

The recovery from unseasonably warm temps has left us with strong melt-freeze crusts on the snow surface.  These crusts are very strong and carrying the weight of skiers.  Recently with the onset of the colder air mass to the Island we have had the formation of surface hoar occur ranging from 5-20mm in some areas.  This surface hoar has not been observed widespread through the mountains, mostly on Northerly aspects or shaded areas that see little sun. Wind deposited snow will form soft slabs on top of this surface hoar providing a potentially unstable condition for the next few days.  The midpack is very strong with no weak layers observed at treeline.  The December facet layer that has been much talked about is strengthening up at treeline elevations but is still a cause for concern in some alpine areas.

Travel advisory:

Over the next few days be cautious on Northerly aspects that have seen wind depostited snow.  Soft slabs overlying surface hoar on a crust could be present and this kind of condition can be ski triggered easily. Be cautious in large alpine features especially those with planer features and smooth ground cover such as small scree or glacial ice.  These areas are still a cause of concern with the december facet layer that occured during the cold, dry spell. Below treeline I am sad to say is below threshold for avalanches due to the lack of snow.  treeline is close to the same in many areas but there is enough snow with a nice smooth crust on it now to create an avalanche hazard due to the surface hoar.

Avalanche Activity:

No new avalanches have been observed.

Outlook:

looks like a return to our zonal weather pattern with more snow on the way for the weekend.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.