Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Monday, March 23, 2009

Valid Until: Thursday March 26, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Fair - models seem to generally agree on forecast weather but field snow pack and avalanche data are limited for this forecast.

Primary concerns:

• Wind Slab: Winds have been creating both hard and soft wind slab in the lees from SW, S and SE winds as well as cross loading. These slabs will be triggerable by humans.
• Crust/facet layers in the snow pack which may produce avalanches.

Weather:

The island mountains have seen from 20 to 40cm of snow since the last bulletin depending on location. Freezing levels rose to around tree line on a few occasions during the last two storms. Winds have been moderate to strong at times from the SW, S and SE. The forecast is for light precipitation Tuesday, clear skies Wednesday and more cloud and perhaps some light precip on Thursday. Freezing levels will drop from 1000m to near surface later Tuesday climb back up to 1000m Wednesday and stay there on Thursday except for some cooling Wednesday night. Winds will be generally light for the forecast period.

Travel advisory:

The recent amounts of snow are perhaps not as great as the previous storms but there is still plenty of snow “available for transport” by the moderate to strong winds which we have been seeing. This will result in wind slabs in all the lees. Be increasingly cautious in steepening terrain and if you do not have the skills and experience to evaluate snow stability then stay out of steeper terrain. Keep in mind that the spring sun is getting warmer and that even short exposure of the snow to sun can start to cause wet snow activity. Keep an eye out above you for newly formed and weak cornices and the effect that the sun can have on these.

Snowpack:

20-40cm of recent storm snow as been moved around by moderate to strong winds leaving soft and hard wind slab on NE, N and NW aspects. Warming during the storms has left various crust layers with facets at them. These layers are producing easy to moderate planar shear results in tests suggesting that with sufficient load they could be the failure plane in an avalanche. 

Avalanche Activity:

No new avalanche activity has been reported in the last 48 hours.

Outlook:

Light precipitation Tuesday, clear skies Wednesday and more cloud and perhaps some light precip on Thursday. Freezing levels will drop from 1000m to near surface later Tuesday climb back up to 1000m Wednesday and stay there on Thursday except for some cooling Wednesday night.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.