Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Monday, March 30, 2009

Valid Until: Thursday April 2, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Good - models seem to generally agree on forecast weather and we have some recent snow pack observations.

Primary concerns:

• Wind Slab: Strong NW winds Sunday will have created wind slab on SE aspects and cross loaded. New snow and SE winds Wednesday will create new slabs on Northern aspects and NW winds Thursday will move snow and create slabs on the SE again.

Weather:

The week-end barely delivered the least amount of snow we had forecast with a maximum of about 10cm falling on the island mountains. Winds were generally light except for a short lived but strong (up to 70km/hr) burst from the North West late Saturday and early Sunday. Freezing levels remained quite low rising to a little over 1000m on Monday. The forecast is mixed. Light snow Monday night with accumulations of 5-10 cm. Sun and cloud with some showers giving little snow accumulation Tuesday. Light to moderate snow Wednesday giving 10 to 20 cm. Mostly sunny Thursday. Winds may rise to moderate or strong from the NW on Tuesday and Thursday and moderate from the SE during the snow on Wednesday. Freezing levels will drop to sea level Tuesday, rise to near 1000m later Wednesday and drop back to near sea level Thursday.

Travel advisory:

Though we saw much less snow than forecast over the week-end we did have a spike in the wind from the North West up to 70km/hr with loose snow on the surface available for transport particularly in the alpine. This wind will have deposited wind slabs especially on SE aspects. These could still be triggerable by skiers so watch for them lee to ridge crests as well as in cross loaded features. New snow and SE winds on Wednesday will create new wind slabs on N through NW aspects followed by loading on the opposite sides from NW winds Thursday. Always be on the look out for wind slab. Avoid steeper terrain in the lees to these winds.

Snowpack:

Wind slab in the alpine and at tree line particularly lee to the NW winds on Sunday. Previous wind slabs seem to be bonding well now. The middle and lower pack appear to be quite solid with buried facet layers rounding.

Avalanche Activity:

No new avalanche activity has been observed.

Outlook:

Light snow Monday night with accumulations of 5-10 cm. Sun and cloud with some showers giving little snow accumulation Tuesday. Light to moderate snow Wednesday giving 10 to 20 cm. Mostly sunny Thursday. Winds may rise to moderate or strong from the NW on Tuesday and Thursday and moderate from the SE during the snow on Wednesday. Freezing levels will drop to sea level Tuesday, rise to near 1000m later Wednesday and drop back to near sea level Thursday.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.