Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Monday 14 Deceber, 2009

Valid Until: Thursday 17 December, 2009

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Fair - Snow and wind are in the forecast but amounts are difficult to predict exactly and snowpack data from the alpine remains limited.

Snowpack information is still limited especially from the alpine. If you are in the mountains collecting information please forward this to our forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com.

Weather:

The change has come. A series of pacific frontal systems are hitting the island this week. At time of writing Monday night the east coast of the island has had about 12cm of snow whereas the west coast has had only about 6cm and the north island none yet. The forecast is for 15 to 30cm on the east and west island respectively Tuesday and only about 5cm on the north island. Winds Tuesday will be S to SW up to 35kph. Wednesday will see as much as 50cm of snow on the west island and 20-25cm on the east and north island with winds from SE through SW at up to 45kph. Continued snow and even stronger winds on Thursday. Some of the precipitation will come as rain to elevations below the freezing levels mentioned below when these spike on Wednesday. Freezing levels will hit 1000m on the west coast on Tuesday but stay below that on the east and north island. They will rise to 1500m on the west coast Wednesday (1300m east coast and 800m north island) and drop back down to Tuesdays levels on Thursday.

Travel advisory:

With plenty of new snow and wind in the forecast the avalanche hazard will climb steadily to Wednesday and remain at least considerable on Thursday. Be very cautious in steeper terrain on Tuesday and avoid avalanche terrain altogether on Wednesday. Keep an eye on precipitation amounts and consider the hazard as High on Thursday if the heavy precipitation of Wednesday continues.

Snowpack:

Surface faceting has been observed in a number of locations in the island mountains. With the loading of new snow this will make skier triggered avalanches possible below tree line and may be the cause of some natural activity as well. Faceting in the upper pack at tree line is well bridged by substantial ice crusts, but these crusts are suspected to be considerably thinner in the highest alpine start zones which saw rain for a much shorter period during our last spike in freezing levels and will have experienced more faceting during our arctic outbreak.

Outlook:

Tuesday: 15 to 30cm on the east and west island respectively and only about 5cm on the north island. Winds will be S to SW up to 35kph. Wednesday: as much as 50cm of new snow on the west island and 20-25cm on the east and north island with winds from SE through SW at up to 45kph. Thursday: continued snow on and even stronger winds. Some of this precipitation will come as rain to elevations below the freezing levels mentioned below when these spike on Wednesday. Freezing levels will hit 1000m on the west coast on Tuesday but stay well below that on the east and north island. They will rise to 1500m on Wednesday (1300m east coast and 800m north island) and drop back down to Tuesdays levels on Thursday.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.