Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Party for the bulletin!

We are happy to announce the second annual Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party. Last year’s event was such a success that we are going to do it all again! Great live music from two bands, beer from our friends at Surgenor Brewing and an awesome silent auction with lots of great outdoor gear, lift passes, art and much more are all part of this years event again. The vibe last year in the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland was legendary and all could not wait for this years event. Come on out and have a great time and support your bulletin while you are at it! It all happens on Saturday evening 23 January at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Doors at 8:00PM.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Thursday 31 December, 2009, 13:30 PST.

Valid Until: Sunday 03 January, 2010

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

OUTLOOK	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE
Below Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE	MODERATE

Confidence:

Fair. Models disagree about timing and amounts of precipitation.

Weather:

The island mountains have seen little precipitation from this past Monday to early Thursday with a maximum 10mm of water on the west coast and 4mm on the east and north island. A significant low pressure system just off Vancouver Island has started to deliver precipitation with intensity increasing at time of writing (13:00 Thursday 31 December). This storm will give heavy precipitation to the west coast for the remainder of Thursday and through Friday and moderate to heavy precipitation to the east and north island. The system will dry out giving lighter precipitation on Saturday and little if any on Sunday before the next round of precipitation possibly hits late Sunday (though this is uncertain, see outlook below). Winds will be SW through to SE up to 45kph and gusting much higher as the system hits most intensely and will lighten and turn westerly as things dry up. Freezing levels will rise to 1200-1500m with the storm and drop back down to below 1000m on Saturday and lower further on Sunday.

Avalanche Activity:

At time of writing ski cutting by the patrol at Mount Washington is already producing avalanches up to size 1 from windslab 10 to 25cm deep which are propagating nicely. These slides are running on a variety of surfaces from previous to the storm including the surface hoar mentioned below in the travel advisory.

Travel Advisory:

With plenty of new snow and wind (especially on the western side of the island mountains) we expect to see natural avalanche activity on the west coast and may see some on the east and north island as well. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on New Years day. Be aware that even with lesser snow amounts on the east and north island, winds at 45kph, and gusting much stronger than that, will form plenty of dangerous wind slab in the lees on the NE through N and NW aspects as well as by cross loading. Keep your eye carefully on actual precipitation amounts and increase caution if amounts exceed what is forecast in the outlook below. Caution is also advised below tree line especially because surface hoar development has been observed in sheltered places previous to this storm. This layer may well be the cause of natural or skier triggered avalanches below tree line for the duration of the forecast period.

Outlook:

Thursday/Friday: Up to 70cm of snow on the west side of the island mountains and the top of the Alberni Inlet and 25-35cm on the east and North Island. Winds to 45kph with much stronger gusts from the SW through SE. Freezing levels 1200-1500m.

Saturday: 5-10cm of snow, light westerlies and freezing levels dropping to 1000m and below.

Sunday: Little precipitation, light winds and lowering freezing levels. Another system may to be on it’s way late Sunday/early Monday but at present models disagree on whether a blocking ridge may build to hold of further precipitation.

 

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

December 31st, 2009 | Category: Current Condition |  Print This Post | Subscribe to comments | Both comments and pings are currently closed