Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Party for the bulletin!

We are happy to announce the second annual Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party. Last year’s event was such a success that we are going to do it all again! Great live music from two bands, beer from our friends at Surgenor Brewing and an awesome silent auction with lots of great outdoor gear, lift passes, art and much more are all part of this years event again. The vibe last year in the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland was legendary and all could not wait for this years event. Come on out and have a great time and support your bulletin while you are at it! It all happens on Saturday evening 23 Januaryat the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Doors at 8:00PM.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Sunday 03 January, 2010 20:30 PST.

Valid Until: Wednesday 06 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Fair. Models disagree about the track of the coming storm system leaving much uncertainty about actual precipitation amounts.

Weather:

The island mountains saw between 35mm and 55mm of water or water equivalent mostly on Friday evening and Saturday New Years Day. This delivered mostly snow to all the areas that we tend to travel in ranging from about 40cm on the east coast of the island to about 60cm on the west coast. Freezing levels did spike up to around tree line both on the afternoon/evening of Saturday and Sunday making for a moist surface at these lower elevations. The forecast is for precipitation starting late Sunday and continuing Monday. Amounts are difficult to predict as models disagree on this. We see the possibility of anywhere from 20-50mm of water to the west coast and 10-30mm on the north and east island. The hope is that most of the forecast precipitation will come as snow with freezing levels staying steady at around 1100m until later Monday thought they may rise sooner. We expect to start to see temperatures rising Tuesday and Wednesday with the possibility of very warm temperatures aloft with inversion. Winds moderate to strong from the SE with the precipitation and easing a little on Tuesday then rising again on Wednesday still SE and S. We might see a few mm of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Activity:

Natural as well as skier/snowboarder and explosives triggered avalanches to size two have been observed at and below tree line on Friday and Saturday. A natural cycle is certain to have occurred in the alpine though conditions have not allowed observations thereof.

Snowpack:

Between 40 and 60cm of storm snow fell onto a previous firm crust surface which had faceting in places and surface hoar in some protected areas below tree line. Avalanches observed over the week-end were running within the storm snow as well as on the new/old interface on the crust or on crust with facets or surface hoar present.

Travel Advisory:

Watch the amount of new snow falling on Sunday night and Monday carefully. If amounts are in the higher end of what is forecast above then consider the hazard as HIGH on Monday as forecast above. If precipitation amounts are at the low end of our forecast the hazard is more likely to be CONSIDERABLE. Also watch alpine temperatures for inversion and be aware of the effect that very warm temperatures could have on the slabs which are still not so well bonded to the old surfaces.

Outlook:

The forecast is for precipitation starting late Sunday and continuing Monday. Amounts are difficult to predict as models disagree on this. We see the possibility of anywhere from 20-50mm of water to the west coast and 10-30mm on the north and east island. The hope is that most of the forecast precipitation will come as snow with freezing levels staying steady at around 1100m until late Monday thought they may rise sooner. We expect to start to see temperature inversion Tuesday and Wednesday giving much warmer temperatures at the higher elevations. Winds will be strong from the SE with the precipitation and will ease a little to moderate on Tuesday and then rise again on Wednesday. We might see a few mm of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.