Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Party for the bulletin!

We are happy to announce the second annual Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party. Last year’s event was such a success that we are going to do it all again! Great live music from two bands, beer from our friends at Surgenor Brewing and an awesome silent auction with lots of great outdoor gear, lift passes, art and much more are all part of this years event again. The vibe last year in the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland was legendary and all could not wait for this years event. Come on out and have a great time and support your bulletin while you are at it! It all happens on Saturday evening 23 January at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Doors at 8:00PM.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Thursday 07 January, 2010 20:30 PST.

Valid Until: Sunday 10 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Good. Confident weather forecast but users are warned to watch the snow line as described in the travel advisory below.

Weather:

The island mountains saw between 3 and 8mm of precipitation from Monday to Wednesday this week. This came as light drizzling rain to at least tree line for the most of the period though temperatures did cool at times forming thin crusts. The forecast is for significant precipitation through the forecast period with the heaviest precipitation coming Friday evening. The west coast could see over 100mm in total over the forecast period while the east coast will see about 50mm and north island about 40mm. Freezing levels will fluctuate quite a bit on Thursday and through Friday giving a mixture of snow and rain depending on location on the island and timing but they will steady out later Friday closer to 1600m and above for the remainder of the forecast period meaning rain likely near tree line. Moderate to strong winds mostly from the SW.

Avalanche Activity:

A snowboarder triggered avalanche likely about size 1 to 2 was witnessed in the west bowl at Mount Cain on Monday. No one was buried or injured. Information is limited but it seems likely to have slid on the hard surface previous to last week end’s precipitation. On the same day (Monday 4 January) a similar sized avalanche occurred in the main gully on Mount Arrowsmith. Snowboarders were riding in steep terrain in the west bowl of Mount Cain on Monday and climbers chose to enter a steep gully on Mount Arrowsmith on the same day when this bulletin (which was posted in three locations at Mount Cain) had the hazard at Considerable (which by definition means natural avalanches are possible and human triggered ones probable). It would appear that we have much work to do in avalanche safety education on Vancouver Island!

Snowpack:

Some field testing to tree line is showing the bond between the new snow from last week end and the old surface (previously covered in facets in places) is becoming strong now delivering hard results in testing. This bonding may not have progressed as much in the alpine and with the addition of significant load this layer may deliver deeper results than just the forecast storm snow and wind transported snow would deliver where this deeper issue not present.

Travel Advisory:

The situation will be quite different for this forecast period above the snow line versus below it. With significant amounts of precipitation (especially on the west coast) and wind in the forecast we can look forward to a lot of new snow and wind slab in the alpine or at least above snow line depending on where that ends up being. Expect that both natural and human triggered avalanches are likely in this zone on Saturday and Sunday. Stay out of avalanche terrain during this time and exercise increasing caution in steeper terrain on Friday as well. Watch snow levels carefully. If the snow level drops lower where you are and gives significant amounts of snow, especially snow that can be wind transported by wind, then raise the hazard to considerable or above (depending on snow and transport amounts) at tree line. Below the snow line we can expect the snow to get a good soaking! Human triggered, loose wet snow avalanches are a possibility in this zone though we do not expect natural activity. Use caution in steeper terrain.

Outlook:

The forecast is for significant precipitation through the forecast period with the heaviest precipitation coming Friday evening. The west coast could see over 100mm in total over the forecast period while the east coast will see about 50mm and north island about 40mm. Freezing levels will fluctuate quite a bit on Thursday and through Friday giving a mixture of snow and rain depending on location on the island and timing but they will steady out later Friday closer to 1600m and above for the remainder of the forecast period meaning rain likely near tree line. Moderate to strong winds mostly from the SW.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.