Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Sunday 10 January, 2010.

Party for the bulletin!

We are happy to announce the second annual Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party. Last year’s event was such a success that we are going to do it all again! Great live music from two bands, beerfrom our friends at Surgenor Brewing and an awesome silent auction with lots of great outdoor gear, lift passes, art and much more are all part of this years event again. The vibe last year in the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland was legendary and all could not wait for this years event. Come on out and have a great time and support your bulletin while you are at it! It all happens on Saturday evening 23 Januaryat the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Doors at 8:00PM.

Date Issued: Sunday 10 January, 2010 20:30 PST.

Valid Until: Wednesday 13 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

OUTLOOK	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE
Treeline	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE
Below Treeline	MODERATE	LOW	LOW

Confidence:

Good. Models are generally in agreement.

Weather:

The island mountains received a lot of precipitation over the last three days (Thursday evening to Sunday evening) with 120mm of water on the west coast, 60 to 80mm on the east coast and lesser amounts on the north island. With freezing levels hovering around 1700m this came as rain at least as far up as tree line and higher whereas the high alpine will have received significant amounts of snow, much of it quite wet. Winds were moderate to strong. The forecast is for continued hard and very hard precipitation overnight Sunday and into Monday giving 120 to 70mm of water from west coast to east by the middle of the day Monday. Freezing levels will rise to over the tops of the island mountains in this time meaning a lot of rain to the tops of the highest peaks. Precipitation will continue on Tuesday bringing another 10-40mm. Freezing levels will drop through 1700-1800m as the precipitation slows late Monday and drop further to around 1500m by some time Tuesday. Late Tuesday to early Wednesday will see more, yet lighter precipitation with freezing levels coming down further to 1000-1200m. Winds are expected be be strong (60kph+) from predominantly from the SE though also thourgh S and SW on Sunday night and Monday, continuing at 50+kph on Tuesday and becoming lighter and from the west on Wednesday.

Avalanche Activity:

Given the conditions we have no first hand observations of the alpine from the past three days but can make a good guess that there where natural avalanches in the high alpine. Some loose wet snow releases where observed coming out of steep terrain below the snow line.

Snowpack:

Whereas below the snow line the snow got a good soaking, above it we expect that the high alpine received a lot of new snow. As it was accompanied by strong winds, deep slabs will have formed in the lees.

Travel Advisory:

With prodigious amounts of rain soaking newly created deep slabs in the alpine we expect to see a continued natural avalanche cycle there overnight Sunday and on Monday. If you are inclined to go to the alpine during torrential rains, stay out of avalanche terrain! As the precipitation eases and freezing levels start to slowly drop on Tuesday the situation will improve in the alpine but some of the precipitation coming later in that system may come as snow with high winds depositing new slabs. Be cautious in steeper terrain. With this much water going into the snow at tree line and below natural avalanches while not so likely (except for loose point releases from steep terrain) are a possibility and certainly human triggered slides are possible.

Outlook:

The forecast is for continued hard and very hard precipitation overnight Sunday and into Monday giving 120 to 70mm of water from west coast to east by the middle of the day Monday. Freezing levels will rise to over the tops of the island mountains in this time meaning a lot of rain to the tops of the highest peaks. Precipitation will continue on Tuesday bringing another 10-40mm. Freezing levels will drop through 1700-1800m as the precipitation slows late Monday and drop further to around 1500m by some time Tuesday. Late Tuesday to early Wednesday will see more, yet lighter precipitation with freezing levels coming down further to 1000-1200m. Winds are expected be be strong (60kph+) from predominantly from the SE though also thourgh S and SW on Sunday night and Monday, continuing at 50+kph on Tuesday and becoming lighter and from the west on Wednesday.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

January 10th, 2010 | Category: Current Condition | Print This Post | Subscribe to comments | Both comments and pings are currently closed