Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Party for the bulletin!

We are happy to announce the second annual Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party. Last year’s event was such a success that we are going to do it all again! Great live music from two bands, beer from our friends at Surgenor Brewing and an awesome silent auction with lots of great outdoor gear, lift passes, art and much more are all part of this years event again. The vibe last year in the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland was legendary and all could not wait for this years event. Come on out and have a great time and support your bulletin while you are at it! It all happens on Saturday evening 23 January at the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Doors at 8:00PM.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Thursday 14 January, 2010 20:30 PST.

Valid Until: Sunday 17 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Good.

Weather:

It has been a moist week with rain to very high elevations up until today (Thursday). moderate to heavy precipitation today has delivered about 20 to 60mm of water to the island mountains by 18:00PST. Freezing levels did not climb as high as expected making the snow line on average around 1000 to 1200m meaning significant amounts of snow from that elevation up, albeit very wet snow at the lower elevations. Winds have been up to 40kph mostly from the SE. The forecast is for precipitation to continue Thursday night and early Friday delivering another 25 to 60mm of water. Freezing levels will mostly remain about where they are at time of writing meaning more snow, wet at the lower elevations and with impressive accumulations at the higher elevations on the west coast. Winds of up to 60kph continuing from the SE with the precipitation. Friday morning to Saturday afternoon should see the precipitation easing to little or none with winds also easing for Friday but picking up again to 40-50kph on Saturday SW through SE. Freezing levels will drop to at or near sea level ion Friday. The next system hits late Saturday/early Sunday and should bring another 20-45mm of water with greater amounts on the west coast as usual. Freezing levels for this event on Sunday should be around 1200m.

Avalanche Activity:

Small natural and skier triggered loose wet snow avalanches were observed previous to the recent snow. We have no observations from since the snow and wind began today but expect that a natural avalanche cycle has occurred especially the further west you go in the island mountains.

Travel Advisory:

With potentially as much as a metre of new snow in the alpine on the west coast and lesser yet significant amounts elsewhere in the island alps by Friday morning and strong winds moving that snow we expect to see a natural avalanche cycle continue in the island mountains up to and including early Friday. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Friday. Whereas we expect that natural avalanches may not be happening on Saturday there is no doubt to us that humans will still easily trigger avalanches at tree line and in the alpine on that day. Be very cautious if choosing to travel in avalanche terrain on Saturday and do not do so unless you have the training and experience to make critical snow stability and terrain decisions. With renewed snow and wind on Sunday the hazard will remain at least considerable at tree line and above.

Outlook:

The forecast is for precipitation to continue Thursday night and early Friday delivering another 25 to 60mm of water. Freezing levels will mostly remain about where they are at time of writing meaning more snow, wet at the lower elevations and with impressive accumulations at the higher elevations on the west coast. Winds of up to 60kph continuing from the SE with the precipitation. Friday morning to Saturday afternoon should see the precipitation easing to little or none with winds also easing for Friday but picking up again to 40-50kph on Saturday SW through SW. Freezing levels will drop to at or near sea level in this time. The next system hits late Saturday/early Sunday and should bring another 20-45mm of water with greater amounts on the west coast as usual. Freezing levels for the event on Sunday should be around 1200m.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.