Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Party for the bulletin!

We are happy to announce the second annual Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin Fund Raising Party. Last year’s event was such a success that we are going to do it all again! Great live music from two bands, beerfrom our friends at Surgenor Brewing and an awesome silent auction with lots of great outdoor gear, lift passes, art and much more are all part of this years event again. The vibe last year in the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland was legendary and all could not wait for this years event. Come on out and have a great time and support your bulletin while you are at it! It all happens on Saturday evening 23 Januaryat the Riding Fool Hostel in Cumberland. Doors at 8:00PM.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

UPDATE ISSUED Monday 18 January, 2010, 10:00 PST

Valid Until: Wednesday 20 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Fair. There is some disagreement in models about precipitation amounts.

Weather:

Up-date Monday morning: Much of the west coast received considerably less precipitation than previously forecast for overnight allowing us to drop the hazard rating from high to considerable for the west coast. Watch timing and amounts of precipitation from the next frontal system and compare them to the forecast below from Sunday evening to determine if the HIGH rating for the west coast will apply for Tuesday.

The island mountains received truly coastal amounts of precipitation on Thursday and into early Friday. Freezing levels came in a little lower than expected making for snow at elevations about about 1000-1200m. The result was nearly a metre and a half of new snow in the alpine on the west coast, and about 50cm on the east coast and north island. Winds to 40kph mostly from the SE accompanied this snow. Friday saw a clearing and cooling break (see snow pack section below) followed by 15-30cm of snow overnight Saturday/Sunday with light SE winds. Precipitation began again Sunday afternoon and is forecast to give 20 to 40mm of water (40 west coast, 25 east coast, 20 north island) Sunday and Monday. A quick succession of frontal systems promises to give a second wave on Tuesday/Wednesday delivering 20 to 50mm (50mm west coast, 30mm east coast, 20mm north island). Freezing levels will likely rise and fall from about 1100 and below at times to 1300m during the precipitation events meaning snow during the forecast period in the alpine and at tree line but a mixture or rain and snow below. Winds are forecast to be strong SE overnight Sunday/Monday and moderate to strong from the SE for the remainder of the forecast period.

Avalanche Activity:

We do not have alpine observations from during or after the storm Thursday/Friday but expect that a natural avalanche cycle occurred. Natural and human triggered avalanches were observed at and below tree line.

Snowpack:

The past Thursday/Friday storm put almost a metre and a half of snow on the west coast mountains and about 50cm on the east coast and north island with around a metre in the middle of the island alps. The wind gusting to 40kph will certainly have left windslab about in the alpine and at tree line. Observations at tree line on the east coast on Saturday showed easy shears within this storm snow at a density change which resulted from a rise in temperature later in the storm. The clearing on Friday allowed for the formation of surface hoar on top of this storm snow in sheltered places that are open to the sky at and below tree line. Saturday night saw an additional 15-30cm of snow deposited on the previous storm surface and precipitation has started again later Sunday afternoon and promises to deliver much more snow.

Travel Advisory:

We are anticipating enough new snow and strong winds in the alpine on Sunday/Monday that we expect to see natural avalanches in the alpine on the west coast of the island. The same is true for Tuesday on the west coast. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended in the alpine on the west coast on these days. Precipitation on the east and north island is anticipated to be less meaning we do not necessarily expect natural activity but are sure given the combination of all that new snow and wind transported snow along with instabilities which persist in the previous storm snow, that skier triggered avalanches are probable. Another concern at and below tree line in open areas which are sheltered from the wind is the surface hoar mentioned above which will be buried under the load of that new snow.

Outlook:

Precipitation began again Sunday afternoon and is forecast to give 20 to 40mm of water (40 west coast, 25 east coast, 20 north island) Sunday and Monday. A quick succession of frontal systems promises to give a second wave on Tuesday/Wednesday delivering 20 to 50mm (50mm west coast, 30mm east coast, 20mm north island). Freezing levels will likely rise and fall from about 1100 and below at times to 1300m during the precipitation events meaning snow during the forecast period in the alpine and at tree line but a mixture or rain and snow below. Winds are forecast to be strong SE overnight Sunday/Monday and moderate to strong from the SE for the remainder of the forecast period.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.