Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Monday 25 January, 2010.

SPECIAL THANKS to bulletin sponsors and all the great folks that came out to support the 2nd annual “Party for the Bulletin” fundraiser on Saturday night. See our thank you page for details.

Date Issued: Monday 25 January, 11:30 PST.

Valid Until: Wednesday 27 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

OUTLOOK	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday
Alpine	HIGH	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE
Treeline	CONSIDERABLE	CONSIDERABLE	MODERATE
Below Treeline	MODERATE	MODERATE	LOW

Confidence:

Good. Models are in agreement on timing and intensity of this system and of the drying trend on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Main Concerns:

Storm snow and winds. Plenty of new snow and moderate to strong winds further loading new snow.
Wind slab. Large and deep wind slabs are being created by winds which are strong in the alpine and moderate to strong at tree line.
Cornices. Lots of new snow and wind are building sizable cornices.

Weather:

The storm which was forecast in our last bulletin to arrive late Sunday started early on Sunday with high winds in the alpine and moderate to high winds at tree line from the E and S but mostly from the SE. Precipitation was light to begin with but increased to heavy overnight Sunday delivering up to 60cm of snow in total by Monday morning. Freezing levels have hovered around the 1000m mark throughout the precipitation so far. Winds have continued to be moderate gusting to strong at tree line and strong in the alpine. Precipitation is forecast to continue until the early hours of Tuesday giving another 15 to 50cm of snow with greater amounts on the west coast and lesser amounts on the north island. Freezing levels should continue to be around the 1000m level though they might see a slight rise to around 1300m during the day on Monday. Winds will continue as they have at Moderate to strong from the SE for the duration of the storm, Tuesday and Wednesday will see a drying trend with and end to precipitation. Freezing levels will vary daily from about 400m to 1000m. Winds will ease to light to moderate mostly from the S Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Activity:

At time of writing we have not yet had observations of avalanche activity but can expect that with up to 60cm of snow so far and high winds, natural avalanches will be occurring in the alpine and avalanche control work at Mount Washington will certainly be producing skier and explosives triggered results.

Snowpack:

As of Sunday afternoon at which point new snow accumulation was still only around 10cm, winds at tree line where already showing signs of building slabs with easy shears appearing in the new and wind transported snow. One can easily extrapolate how this will have developed given all the new snow and continued wind in the alpine and at tree line.

Travel Advisory:

With moderate to strong winds moving plenty of snow which was available for transport on Sunday, followed by continued moderate to strong winds and up to 60cm of new snow at time of writing, there is bound to be a natural avalanche cycle occurring in the alpine. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Monday. Travel in avalanche terrain at tree line on Monday and at tree line and above on Tuesday should be considered only by parties with advanced route finding and snow stability evaluation skills. Stick to low angle terrain and avoid convex features, features lee to storm winds and cross loaded features. As always be aware of terrain traps below and keep in mind that even below tree line human triggered avalanches are possible and terrain traps (particularly trees) are numerous at these elevations and can turn even small avalanches into much more serious situations. Though avalanche activity will have eased and storm snow will be settling in by Wednesday, remain aware that wind slab triggerable by skiers will remain in places in the alpine and at tree line.

Outlook:

Precipitation is forecast to continue until the early hours of Tuesday giving another 15 to 50cm of snow with greater amounts on the west coast and lesser amounts on the north island. Freezing levels should continue to be around the 1000m level though they might see a slight rise to around 1300m during the day on Monday. Winds will continue as they have at Moderate to strong from the SE for the duration of the storm, Tuesday and Wednesday will see a drying trend with and end to precipitation, freezing levels varying daily from about 400m to 1000m. Winds will ease to light to moderate from the S Tuesday and Wednesday.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

January 25th, 2010 | Category: Current Condition | Print This Post | Subscribe to comments | Both comments and pings are currently closed