Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Thursday 28 January, 2010.

Date Issued: Thursday 28 January, 2010, 21:00hrs.

Valid Until: Sunday 31 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

OUTLOOK	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
Alpine	MODERATE	MODERATE	MODERATE
Treeline	LOW	LOW	LOW
Below Treeline	LOW	LOW	LOW

Confidence:

Good.

Main Concerns:

Wind slab which remains in the alpine and at tree line and which will be triggerable by humans.

Weather:

The island mountains saw between 40 and 80cm of snow early this week with most of it falling between late Sunday and early Tuesday. The snow came with moderate to strong winds mostly from the SE. Freezing levels hovered around 700 to 900m. With the onset of our next system snow showers have begun again today (Thursday) delivering around 10cm to time of writing (21:00 Thursday). Freezing levels have climbed slightly to around 900-1000m and are forecast to continue to climb later Thursday spiking briefly up to as high as the tops of the island mountains by early Friday. They should drop again by later Friday to around 1700m and stay there until the middle of the night Saturday when they will slowly drop Through 1300m to 1100m by Sunday evening. This system is expected to give us perhaps 15 to 35cm of snow above the snow line (see freezing level predictions above) from Thursday to Sunday inclusive. Expect greater amounts on the west coast and lesser on the east and north island. Winds up to 45kph are expected up to later Friday with lightening after that. Direction mostly from the SE and S.

Avalanche Activity:

Numerous natural avalanches have been observed at tree line and in the alpine from a natural cycle which occurred during the storm Monday/early Tuesday. Larger precipitation values for the windward side of the island alps suggest that the cycle was more pronounced with larger avalanches on the west coast though observations are all from the east and north island. Explosive and ski cut avalanches to size 2 were reported from avalanche control at Mount Washington on Monday.

Snow Pack:

40 to 80cm of snow with plenty of wind brought about a natural avalanche cycle mostly in the alpine and to a lesser extent at tree line on Monday. Wind slab remains in many places at these elevations and showed easy shearing in tests on Wednesday. Where the wind has not affected the storm snow it has settled in nicely showing no significant shears on Wednesday.

Travel Advisory:

Be aware that wind slab triggerable by humans remains at tree line and in the alpine. Watch conditions as you travel to see how the wind has moved locally through the terrain you are in. Constantly evaluate the density of the snow for wind effect. Be aware that new snow falling with little wind effect in places could conceal previous wind effect below. Below tree line with warmer temperatures and rain at lower elevations, watch for loose wet snow avalanches which may be small in size but could have increased destructive potential if combined with the effect of a terrain trap (trees, cliffs etc.)

Outlook:

Expect perhaps 15 to 30cm of snow above the snow line (see freezing level predictions below) from Thursday to Sunday inclusive. Expect greater amounts on the west coast and lesser on the east and north island. Winds up to 45kph are forecast up to later Friday and lightening after that. Direction mostly from the SE and S. Freezing levels are forecast to continue to climb later Thursday spiking briefly up to as high as the tops of the island mountains by early Friday. They should drop again by later Friday to around 1700m and stay there until the middle of the night Saturday when they will slowly drop through 1300m to 1100m by Sunday evening. Winds up to 45kph are expected up to later Friday with lightening after that. Direction mostly from the SE and S.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

January 28th, 2010 | Category: Current Condition | Print This Post | Subscribe to comments | Both comments and pings are currently closed