Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Thursday 04 February, 2010, 22:00hrs.

Valid Until: Sunday 07 February, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Raise ratings for the Alpine and Tree Line to CONSIDERABLE for all three days of this forecast on the west Coast if greater forecast precip amounts come to be.

Confidence:

Fair. Models are in disagreement about precipitation amounts some predicting significant amounts for the west coast in particular.

Main Concerns:

• Strong winds transporting snow to create wind slab.
• Storm snow specifically on the west coast should the higher modeled precipitation values come true.

Weather:

Between 7 and 21mm of precipitation fell on the island mountains since Monday night. Breaking from the pattern of late, the higher values fell on the east and north island whereas the west coast saw the lowest amounts. With freezing levels ranging from about 1100m to 1500m this precipitation came mostly as snow to the alpine and tree line and as a mixture of snow and rain below tree line. Winds have been light to moderate mostly from the E and SE.

The forecast is for continued precipitation coming mostly between Thursday night and early Saturday morning. Amounts should be in the 10 to 20mm range with some models suggesting as much as 40mm for the west coast by early Saturday and another 10mm for the west coast on Sunday. Freezing levels between 1200 and 1500m up to early Saturday when they could spike up to around 1700m after which they will drop again. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the S and SE.

Avalanche Activity:

No new avalanches have been observed.

Snow Pack:

The snow pack is well settled with no significant shears except at a crust near the surface at tree line and below but these are moderate shears and are likely gaining strength.

Travel Advisory:

Be aware of where the wind has been and avoid steep slopes that have been wind loaded as well as cross loaded areas. If you are heading to the west coast mountains keep your eye on precipitation amounts and if the higher values are realised raise the hazard at tree line and above to CONSIDERABLE for all three days of this forecast.

Outlook:

Continued precipitation coming mostly between Thursday night and early Saturday morning. Amounts should be in the 10 to 20mm range with some models suggesting as much as 40mm for the west coast by early Saturday and another 10mm for the west coast on Sunday. Freezing levels between 1200 and 1500m up to early Saturday when they could spike up to around 1700m after which they will drop again. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the S and SE.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.