Date issued: Monday 08 February, 2010, 10:00 PST

Valid Until: Wednesday 20 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

NOTE: RAISE ALPINE AND TREE LINE RATINGS BY ONE LEVEL FOR ALL AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HIGHER SNOW FALL AMOUNTS (>30cm) DURING THE STORM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY.

Confidence:

Good. Models are in agreement about the next few days weather.

Weather:

The island mountains saw between 5mm and 50mm of water from Thursday night to Saturday afternoon with the greater amounts falling on the west coast. Winds during the precipitation (especially in the earlier stages of it) were moderate to strong at the higher elevations and mostly from the S and SE. Freezing levels hovered around 1200 to 1300m with a spike later on Saturday to around 1500m. Freezing levels were a little higher on the west coast.

The outlook is for cooler temperatures, little precipitation and generally lighter winds. Expect 0-15cm of snow mostly on Monday and mostly on the west and north island with winds generally light from the SW through S to SE. Freezing levels between 700 and 1000m with a spike to around 1300m on Tuesday.

Avalanche Activity:

One skier cut size 1 and a natural size 1.5 were observed at Mount Cain. Both were on west aspects in wind exposed areas at and above tree line. We have limited observations from other parts of the island but with the amount of snow which fell and the wind which accompanied it we expect that natural avalanches did occur. On the west coast at Mount Myra an avalanche of at least size 2 was observed on the north face and numerous wet snow avalanches were observed at the lower elevations (<1300m).

Snowpack:

From about 10cm to more than half a meter of snow fell in areas above around 1200-1300m since Thursday night. With moderate to strong winds to move this snow around (especially earlier in the storm), wind slab was created and though we have limited observations natural activity did occurr in the areas of higher snow fall both on the west coast and interior of the island as well as on the east coast in places. A spike in freezing levels later on Saturday made for a wet snow avalanche cycle at lower elevations especially on the west coast and left a crust with about 3cm of snow above it from around 1300m down. We do not have observations of the snow pack from areas of higher snow fall but expect shears remain in the new snow and triggerable wind slab remains in the lees at ridgetop and cross loaded features.

Travel Advisory:

There is quite a lot of variation in the situation depending on where on the island you are right now with snowfall amounts having varied so much. The north island has nice skiing with 20cm of storm snow sitting on a supportable crust with generally good snow stability with the main caution being to look out for isolated wind slab. The remainder of the island alps saw more (30-50+ cm) snow and so we would expect to see more persistent shears within that new snow and more wide spread and more triggerable wind slab. Increased caution is advised in those places.  Also keep an eye on the temperatures and if we get some clear and sunny weather be aware that solar radiation is starting to gain some strength at this time of year and steep rocky solar slopes may shed loose snow.

Outlook:

Cooler temperatures, little precipitation and generally lighter winds. Expect 5-15cm of snow mostly on Monday with winds generally light from the SW through S to SE. Freezing levels between 700 and 1000m with a spike to around 1300m on Tuesday.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Thursday 04 February, 2010, 22:00hrs.

Valid Until: Sunday 07 February, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Raise ratings for the Alpine and Tree Line to CONSIDERABLE for all three days of this forecast on the west Coast if greater forecast precip amounts come to be.

Confidence:

Fair. Models are in disagreement about precipitation amounts some predicting significant amounts for the west coast in particular.

Main Concerns:

• Strong winds transporting snow to create wind slab.
• Storm snow specifically on the west coast should the higher modeled precipitation values come true.

Weather:

Between 7 and 21mm of precipitation fell on the island mountains since Monday night. Breaking from the pattern of late, the higher values fell on the east and north island whereas the west coast saw the lowest amounts. With freezing levels ranging from about 1100m to 1500m this precipitation came mostly as snow to the alpine and tree line and as a mixture of snow and rain below tree line. Winds have been light to moderate mostly from the E and SE.

The forecast is for continued precipitation coming mostly between Thursday night and early Saturday morning. Amounts should be in the 10 to 20mm range with some models suggesting as much as 40mm for the west coast by early Saturday and another 10mm for the west coast on Sunday. Freezing levels between 1200 and 1500m up to early Saturday when they could spike up to around 1700m after which they will drop again. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the S and SE.

Avalanche Activity:

No new avalanches have been observed.

Snow Pack:

The snow pack is well settled with no significant shears except at a crust near the surface at tree line and below but these are moderate shears and are likely gaining strength.

Travel Advisory:

Be aware of where the wind has been and avoid steep slopes that have been wind loaded as well as cross loaded areas. If you are heading to the west coast mountains keep your eye on precipitation amounts and if the higher values are realised raise the hazard at tree line and above to CONSIDERABLE for all three days of this forecast.

Outlook:

Continued precipitation coming mostly between Thursday night and early Saturday morning. Amounts should be in the 10 to 20mm range with some models suggesting as much as 40mm for the west coast by early Saturday and another 10mm for the west coast on Sunday. Freezing levels between 1200 and 1500m up to early Saturday when they could spike up to around 1700m after which they will drop again. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong from the S and SE.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

Vancouver Island Avalanche Bulletin

Date Issued: Monday 01 February, 2010, 21:00hrs.

Valid Until: Thursday 04 February, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Good.

Weather:

Precipitation has been light in the Island Alps From Saturday to Monday bringing from about 4 to 10mm of rain or snow as water equivalent. Freeing levels where up for the earlier part of the period meaning rain to at least tree line until Sunday afternoon and a little snow after that. Winds remained light to moderate from the S, SE and E.

The outlook is for precipitation to continue to be light with totals for the forecast period of less than 10mm for the east and north island and perhaps a little over 30mm for the west coast. Freezing levels will fluctuate between about 1000 and 1400m. Winds will be light to moderate from the SE through SW.

Avalanche Activity:

Loose wet snow avalanches out of steep terrain were observed over the week end.

Snow Pack:

A well settled snow pack has received mostly light rain below tree line and a little bit of snow near tree line and above.

Travel Advisory:

Travel is generally safe. Always be prepared for back country travel and keep an eye out for wind slab in the alpine.

Outlook:

The outlook is for precipitation to continue to be light with totals for the forecast period of less than 10mm for the east and north island and perhaps a little over 30mm for the west coast. Freezing levels will fluctuate between about 1000 and 1400m. Winds will be light to moderate from the SE through SW.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.

Date Issued: Thursday 28 January, 2010, 21:00hrs.

Valid Until: Sunday 31 January, 2010.

Bulletin Area: This bulletin covers the mountainous region of Vancouver Island from the Mt. Cain Ski Area in the North to the Beaufort range to the South including the mountains of Strathcona Provincial Park.

DANGER RATINGS

Confidence:

Good.

Main Concerns:

• Wind slab which remains in the alpine and at tree line and which will be triggerable by humans.

Weather:

The island mountains saw between 40 and 80cm of snow early this week with most of it falling between late Sunday and early Tuesday. The snow came with moderate to strong winds mostly from the SE. Freezing levels hovered around 700 to 900m. With the onset of our next system snow showers have begun again today (Thursday) delivering around 10cm to time of writing (21:00 Thursday). Freezing levels have climbed slightly to around 900-1000m and are forecast to continue to climb later Thursday spiking briefly up to as high as the tops of the island mountains by early Friday. They should drop again by later Friday to around 1700m and stay there until the middle of the night Saturday when they will slowly drop Through 1300m to 1100m by Sunday evening. This system is expected to give us perhaps 15 to 35cm of snow above the snow line (see freezing level predictions above) from Thursday to Sunday inclusive. Expect greater amounts on the west coast and lesser on the east and north island. Winds up to 45kph are expected up to later Friday with lightening after that. Direction mostly from the SE and S.

Avalanche Activity:

Numerous natural avalanches have been observed at tree line and in the alpine from a natural cycle which occurred during the storm Monday/early Tuesday. Larger precipitation values for the windward side of the island alps suggest that the cycle was more pronounced with larger avalanches on the west coast though observations are all from the east and north island. Explosive and ski cut avalanches to size 2 were reported from avalanche control at Mount Washington on Monday.

Snow Pack:

40 to 80cm of snow with plenty of wind brought about a natural avalanche cycle mostly in the alpine and to a lesser extent at tree line on Monday. Wind slab remains in many places at these elevations and showed easy shearing in tests on Wednesday. Where the wind has not affected the storm snow it has settled in nicely showing no significant shears on Wednesday.

Travel Advisory:

Be aware that wind slab triggerable by humans remains at tree line and in the alpine. Watch conditions as you travel to see how the wind has moved locally through the terrain you are in. Constantly evaluate the density of the snow for wind effect. Be aware that new snow falling with little wind effect in places could conceal previous wind effect below. Below tree line with warmer temperatures and rain at lower elevations, watch for loose wet snow avalanches which may be small in size but could have increased destructive potential if combined with the effect of a terrain trap (trees, cliffs etc.)

Outlook:

Expect perhaps 15 to 30cm of snow above the snow line (see freezing level predictions below) from Thursday to Sunday inclusive. Expect greater amounts on the west coast and lesser on the east and north island. Winds up to 45kph are forecast up to later Friday and lightening after that. Direction mostly from the SE and S. Freezing levels are forecast to continue to climb later Thursday spiking briefly up to as high as the tops of the island mountains by early Friday. They should drop again by later Friday to around 1700m and stay there until the middle of the night Saturday when they will slowly drop through 1300m to 1100m by Sunday evening. Winds up to 45kph are expected up to later Friday with lightening after that. Direction mostly from the SE and S.

Are you traveling in the island back country?

Send our forecasters your observations. We are particularly interested in hearing if you have observed avalanche activity or If you or a member of your party has been involved in an avalanche. Email your observations to the Island Avalanche Bulletin forecasters at info@islandalpineguides.com

Important Notice: This is a regional forecast and significant variation may exist within the forecast area. The information and danger ratings are intended as a trip planning aid for recreational, backcountry users of avalanche terrain; they are not meant to be used as the sole factor in determining the avalanche danger presented by a specific slope. Always include local weather, snowpack and avalanche observations in your decision to travel in avalanche terrain. Observations and experience may lead to different conclusions from what is reported or recommended. See disclaimer for further details. The technical data used to produce these bulletins is obtained from a variety of sources, including local ski areas and remote weather resources.